Not this time: Ryan Meili made several visits to Prince Albert during his campaign but hopes of an NDP sweep evaporated.(Jeff D'Andrea/paNOW Staff)

By Glenn Hicks

election 2020

NDP needs to leave previous century behind: U of S professor

Oct 27, 2020 | 5:00 PM

A political science professor says the big surprise of Election Night Monday was not only the disappointing showing by the opposition New Democrats but their lack of a powerful ground game on the big day.

And while Greg Poelzer of the University of Saskatchewan questions the future relevance of the NDP party after its 50-11 drubbing, he’s also sounding a word of caution to the victorious Sask. Party which he says may also be at a crossroads.

‘[We] were expecting a much closer race and certainly for the NDP to make gains in the cities; they’ve actually gone backwards,” Poelzer told paNOW, five days after predicting Ryan Meili’s party could win between 20 and 23 seats.

The count of the very large number of mail-in ballots this week could still alter the final election result in some close-fought ridings, but most analysts suggest the NDP won’t add too much more to their tally. And Poelzer thinks the overall outcome of the vote is in part due to changes in the makeup of the party and how their apparatus operates – or rather no longer operates – on election day.

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“When I was calling around different folks on campaigns yesterday… voting officials at polling stations outnumbered voters. The big orange machine that was formidable during the Romanow era and Lorne Calvert, it just doesn’t exist anymore,” he said.

Poelzer figures the New Democrats are experiencing a division among their ranks that sees what he terms “an intractable and politically fatal” tension between working class activists on the left of the party and their traditional fight for social and income equality, versus centrists who are seeking more progressive moves in “modern” arenas such as climate change and Indigenous issues.

“Unless that party can move with full support to a position that is changing with the times… I think there’s a real risk the NDP will become irrelevant in the 21^st century,” he argued.

Power of the incumbent

The fundamental reason why the Sask. Party scored such a clear mandate for a fourth successive term in office, Poelzer argues, is down to the power of the incumbency amid the current economic uncertainty. As long as the ruling party hasn’t messed things up badly then the safe money is almost always on them getting back into office.

As Donna Harpauer, the minister of finance and victorious Humboldt-Watrous candidate told northeastNOW Monday night, “the ballot question was who do you trust to manage the economic recovery of our province, and I’m looking forward to that task.”

Premier Scott Moe said earlier Monday evening “…we got the answer [to that question], and we got the answer loud and clear.”

Poelzer figures the Sask. Party got the majority result that, while bigger than he expected, was never in doubt given the tough times.

“That was the biggest single factor. Whether you look at British Columbia [which voted the incumbent NDP back in on Saturday], or Saskatchewan, and I would a dare say if there was an election in Ontario, Doug Ford would win in a landslide, and no one would have said that back in January,” he said. “If the sky isn’t falling, you’re going to go with the devil you know.”

As the NDP awaits whatever solace it may extract from some mail-in ballot success later this week, the Sask. Party gets set to resume its governance and plot a course that aims to get this province back on an even financial keel by 2024/25, and minus the grandiose spending promises of Ryan Meili.

Big or Little Westerners?

But Poelzer figures Scott Moe’s team also has some key directions to take – and avoid – in the years ahead. He says that’s due in part to the rise of the separatist-leaning Buffalo Party which secured a higher percentage share of the overall provincial vote than the Green Party and Progressive Conservatives. Poelzer predicted they would secure double digit percentages in oil country, but the actual numbers were a surprise. In Estevan for example, the Buffalo Party candidate had over 26 per cent of the vote, behind winning Sask. Party candidate Lori Carr.

Poelzer cites Preston Manning, the leader of the Reform Party of Canada and predecessor of the Conservative Party of Canada, in bringing up the notion of conciliatory nation-building ‘Big Westerners’ seeking a more equitable and prosperous Canada as opposed to ‘Little Westerners’ who build firewalls and look inward. He says the Buffalo Party represents a strong temptation to go down the path of ‘Little Westerners.’

“One of the things the Sask. Party needs to guard against is adopting some of the language and perspective of the Buffalo Party, and not remaining, as Brad Wall had it, as a ‘Big Westerner’ party. Which fork in the road does Saskatchewan want to take?”

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glenn.hicks@jpbg.ca

On Twitter:@princealbertnow