(File photos/ paNOW Staff)

By Glenn Hicks

Election 2020

NDP to make big gains: U of S professor

Oct 23, 2020 | 8:00 AM

Saskatchewan’s New Democrats could win between 20 and 23 seats in next week’s provincial election, including a possible sweep in Prince Albert, according to a political science professor. The result on election night in 2016 was 51-10 for the Saskatchewan Party.

While Greg Poelzer with the University of Saskatchewan figures the governing party will retain power with a strong majority of the total 61 seats on offer, he says NDP leader Ryan Meili has become better known and likeable among the electorate, especially after a solid showing in the leaders’ debate.

Electorate warms to Meili

“The most important event in this entire campaign for Ryan Meili was the leaders’ debate. He certainly exceeded expectations and… right after, you saw more NDP signs going up on lawns,” Poelzer told paNOW. “He portrayed a warmth, a high degree of empathy around issues like COVID and the suicide rates in the province. He seems like your neighbour and the neighbour you’d like to have.”

He added these personality traits help mitigate some of the framing of Meili as too far to the political left.

International Spotlight

P.A.'s Howe one of 4 Sask. born players named to Canada's World Junior roster

2h ago

National

Ottawa to remove 30% investment cap for Canadian pension funds

6h ago

Budget woes

Golf and curling centre faces grim season without financial boost

10h ago

The NDP leader has led an aggressive campaign, most recently making his fifth visit to Prince Albert to highlight the Sask. Party’s record “of letting down the city,” as Meili put it. Poelzer also noted in recent weeks the Sask. Party has started bringing out their troops, including ministers, to door knock in ridings they think are in play or at risk.

Challenges right and left

He also figured the political challenge to the governing party won’t only come from the NDP, citing oil country ridings that could produce surprisingly big support for the new Buffalo Party – perhaps over ten per cent of the vote – to make the Sask. Party take notice. If, as he predicts, the NDP gains as many as 13 more seats over their 2016 tally, Poelzer thinks the Sask. Party may find its political tent has shrunk.

“I think it may be a signal to listen to their own base,” he said, explaining the Sask. Party used to be a coalition of federal Liberals and federal Conservatives with a nation building and conciliatory tone. But in recent years he thinks attacks on Ottawa, especially against the Prime Minister, have helped stoke the flames of what he termed the “quasi-separatist impulse and rise of the Buffalo Party,” leading to a loss of voters on the right while also alienating voters in the centre or on the left of the Sask. Party.

But while he expects the NDP to make some inroads next week, Poelzer figures Sask. Party leader Scott Moe will hold sway, in part because he has been a “steady hand” through the COVID-19 pandemic, although adding that’s true for virtually every provincial premier in Canada. Also, the economy is holding up relatively well.

“One thing that does help the Premier are the raw economic numbers in terms of unemployment rate, economic growth and so on, especially compared to the rest of Canada,” he said.

P.A. sweep possible

On the Prince Albert front Poelzer figures the Sask. Party may have their work cut out for them.

“There is a good chance, from what I’m hearing, that both P.A. Northcote and P.A. Carlton could end up going NDP. It’s going to be closer. There’s going to be some surprisingly closer races. I would have put the ceiling for the NDP at 22 seats, and so much depends on getting out the vote… but I actually think it’s now 23 seats.

“I’ll tell you this. Not withstanding of course every leader says they’re in it to win it and to become the Premier, but if you told Ryan Meili and the NDP they could be potentially taking 20 [to] 23 seats, they would take that any day of the week.”

–

glenn.hicks@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @princealbertnow