Premier Scott Moe was in Prince Albert recently to start construction of the hospital addition. Local MLAs Joe Hargrave (far left) and Alana Ross (second from right) were also there.

By Susan McNeil

Provincial Politics

Sask. political scientist offers early predictions for fall election

May 23, 2024 | 10:00 AM

If history repeats itself, the constituency of Prince Albert-Northcote will shift back to the New Democratic Party in the next election.

The NDP’s stronghold on the seat started in 1991 and lasted for 20 years while Eldon Lautermilch was MLA. However, it has flip-flopped between the New Democrats and the Sask Party every election since 2011. Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor in the Department of Political Studies at the University of Saskatchewan said polls suggest the NDP’s Nicole Rancourt, who previously held the seat, will take it back from the Sask Party’s Alana Ross.

“We know that incumbents have a bit of an advantage. They campaign before they understand how their riding works. They’ve been able to build a reputation in their riding,” he said.

Westlake cited studies that show a well-run local campaign is worth four to five per cent of the vote.

The race in Prince Albert – Carlton is expected to be tighter. Challenger Carolyn Brost Strom is looking to oust Joe Hargrave who has been the Sask Party MLA there for the last two terms. The last time the NDP held that seat was in 2007.

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Whether the Prince Albert ridings end up green or orange, Westlake said he wouldn’t be surprised with either result.

“One of the real challenges with polling in Saskatchewan is there’s not a lot of polls, which means I think we had like 13 since the last election… it’s hard to be confident in any kind of projections,” Westlake said.

The smaller the population, the higher the margin of error in a poll as well.

Where things may be more predictable, according to Westlake, is in the riding of Saskatchewan Rivers, north of Prince Albert. The seat is currently held by Nadine Wilson, a former Sask Party member who left caucus after misrepresenting her COVID vaccination status.

READ MORE: Wilson left the Sask Party after she could not confirm her vaccination status, but wore a fully vaccinated sticker into the Legislature.

Since then, Wilson started her own political group: The Sask United Party. Eric Schmalz became the constituency’s Sask Party candidate. Schmalz is currently the Reeve for the RM of Prince Albert.

“What I would say is that the record of MLAs and MPs that have gone off and formed their own parties and tried to attack centre right incumbents isn’t good,” Westlake told paNOW.

He predicted Wilson will see some of the same issues and said that often the centre right party just swings its politics further right to grab those voters.

A total of 15 MLA’s will not be seeking re-election. The Canadian electoral projection model 338Canada, created by Philippe J. Fournier, published results from a poll taken in March. It predicted a 10-seat loss by the governing party. The NDP would secure 23 seats and the Sask Party would have 38.

Westlake anticipates voter intent may change given some of the recent controversy in the legislature – but not enough to push the Sask Party out of governing the province.

Just before the final session, and on his last day as MLA for Biggar/Sask Valley, Speaker Randy Weekes posted a picture of his Sask Party membership card cut into pieces. He concluded the sitting by accusing the government house leader and MLA for Meadow Lake, Jeremy Harrison, of bringing a hunting rifle into the legislature and trying to influence him through harassing texts advocating for the open carry of a firearm. Premier Scott Moe denied the allegations.

“Given where the polls are at, Fournier’s model would put the battle for the 99 per cent likely to go for this Sask Party. So there has to be quite a significant change for his [Harrison’s] riding to be contested or a real revolt against him personally,” Westlake said.

READ MORE: Weekes said Harrison harassed him, brought gun to Leg.

Westlake also disagreed with the Premier referring to Weekes’ comments as ‘sour grapes.’

“The allegations are serious enough that they merit investigation and I would have liked to see the Premier take them more seriously,” he said.

READ MORE: The issue of government MLAs texting the speaker started last fall

Westlake predicted Sask Party MLA Jeremy Cockrill in the Battlefords is likely to re-take his seat despite some recent negative public reaction to how he has handled issues in his role as Minister of Education. Current job action by the Sask Teacher’s Federation is the longest lasting in provincial history and the controversial ‘pronoun policy’ caused protests to pop up around the province.

READ MORE: Teachers are reviewing the proposed deal before voting

The NDP have also raised concerns about government contracts with businesses associated to MLA’s.

The Sask.Party’s decision to embrace some political stances by far-right parties is unlikely to change the outcome of the election this fall, said Westlake, primarily because its strength lies in the voting outcomes in rural ridings.

susan.mcneil@pattisonmedia.com