Record-setting daytime highs will give way to much cooler weather in the middle of this week. (Dawson Thompson/paNOW Staff)

By Rob Mahon

Smoke Causing Cooldown

Wildfire smoke to turn record-setting heat into quick cooldown

May 15, 2023 | 11:42 AM

One of the hottest days of the year so far is on deck in Prince Albert, but the hot weather isn’t going to stay through the whole week thanks to fires burning north of the city.

Tuesday’s daytime high is supposed to be 31 C, the second day in a row of 30 C or higher. In fact, those temperatures would break records on both days. Environment Canada lists the hottest temperature recorded for May 15 in Prince Albert as 26.7 C

“We are under the influence of an upper ridge over much of western Canada that was more centered over Alberta over the weekend but has since shifted east toward Saskatchewan,” said Justin Shelley, meteorologist with Environment Canada. “That’s why we’re seeing the warmer temperatures now.”

Those warmer temperatures, however, are not to last, and the wildfires burning in both Alberta and Saskatchewan will be a big part of the reason why. As the week progresses, more and more smoke is going to be driven south.

“There is a cold front that’s going to pass through the region sort of mid-day tomorrow and that’s going to do a number of things,” Shelley explained. “The first thing will be the big wind shift that comes with that. We’re sort of in a southwesterly flow right now that’s keeping us warm and, for the most part, smoke free… once those winds shift to the north, northwest, that’s going to allow all of that smoke that’s been building in through parts of the northern prairies the last number of days to shift south.”

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That colder front should drop the temperatures down from the low-30s to the high teens, and may bring some badly needed rain with them, but according to Shelley there won’t be much accumulation. In fact, a storm could end up being the worst thing for the area.

“Maybe dry lightning is a risk with how dry it’s been,” said Shelley. “There’s a slight chance of precipitation, but it likely won’t amount to anything significant.”

As of this writing, the forecast shows we’re supposed to warm up in time for the long weekend. Shelley cautioned, however, that predicting how smoke will affect temperature is not easy.

“Smoke forecasting is difficult to do because there are a number of factors,” he said. “Not just the wind direction, but also the activity of the fire at the time. There are a lot of things that go into it.”

The coldest night of the week is projected to be this coming Thursday, with a low of 2 C.