By Canadian Press

Federal NDP candidate drops out after antisemitic post, shakes up N.S. riding race

Sep 16, 2021 | 2:03 AM

HALIFAX — The race for the northern Nova Scotia riding of Cumberland-Colchester has been shaken up days ahead of Monday’s election after the NDP’s 18-year-old candidate dropped out over an antisemitic tweet from 2019.

Cumberland-Colchester was never a winnable riding for the New Democrats, who finished in fourth place in that district in 2019, Cape Breton University political scientist Tom Urbaniak said. And the riding was “leaning” Conservative, according to poll aggregator website 338Canada.com.

But Urbaniak said he thinks the surprise resignation of Dan Osborne will help the Liberals — slightly.

“This will likely benefit the Liberals in a modest way because of philosophical proximity between the NDP and the Liberals,” Urbaniak said. 

But it’s not guaranteed the would-be NDP vote will move massively to Liberal candidate Lenore Zann, who won that riding in the last election by 453 votes over Conservative Scott Armstrong.

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And it’s possible many NDP voters will still cast a ballot for Dan Osborne if they aren’t aware of the scandal. Osborne’s late resignation means his name will remain on the ballot come election day and votes for him will be valid.

The NDP announced on Wednesday Osborne had rescinded his candidacy because of a 2019 tweet in which he asked if Auschwitz was a real place, referring to the Nazi-run concentration camp in Poland during the Second World War. 

Over the weekend, the 18-year-old responded on Twitter to the backlash his old tweet, sent when he was 16, had caused.

“I want to offer an apology,” Osborne said on social media. “The role of Auschwitz and the history of the Holocaust is one we should never forget.” 

Osborne did not respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.

The party also announced Wednesday that Sidney Coles, an NDP candidate for Toronto-St. Paul’s, had resigned after it was reported she posted misinformation about Israel being linked to missing COVID-19 vaccines.

Party Leader Jagmeet Singh said Wednesday antisemitism has no place in his party and the candidates made the right decision to resign. 

Urbaniak said the Liberals could also be helped in the riding by the recent rise in popularity of the People’s Party of Canada, which might split part of the conservative vote.

“We know there is a chunk of people in this constituency, some of whom supported Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin provincially, who will vote People’s Party in the federal election,” he said. “Will that siphon some votes away from the Conservatives? That is a factor to watch here.”

Smith-McCrossin was first elected to the Nova Scotia legislature as a Progressive Conservative for Cumberland North in 2017, but she was booted from the party in June after she posted an angry video on Facebook supporting a COVID-19-related protest that closed the border between Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

Her popularity, however, carried her to victory as an Independent in the August provincial election, in which the Tories won a majority.

The latest projections for the riding from 338Canada.com — which were posted before Osborne’s resignation — estimated the support for Conservative candidate Stephen Ellis at 40 per cent, with the Liberals trailing at 35 per cent. Both candidates, however, were within a margin of error of plus or minus eight per cent.

The riding had been considered a Conservative stronghold since Confederation, but it was won in 2019 by Zann, a former actress, who says health care is the top concern for her constituents.

“Here in Cumberland-Colchester, we have a large number of seniors and they definitely have gotten out to get their vaccinations,” she said in a recent interview. “They’re proud of that fact, and they want to make sure that everybody else does too, and that’s what I’m hearing at the doors a lot.”

Ellis said he’s heard that health care is only followed by pandemic recovery as voters’ top issues.

“It’s a uniquely rural problem,” Ellis said in an interview. “Folks who live in larger centers aren’t having problems with access to medical services as we would here in more rural parts of the country.”

People’s Party candidate Bill Archer said that environmental changes are concerning voters, particularly regarding a dike located between the shores of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

“Two of the main (concerns) happen to be the dike system that protects the Isthmus of Chignecto here, and coastal erosion,” Archer said. 

Sea-level communities have long waited on a detailed plan to keep the narrow land link open amid quickly changing weather patterns, he added.

Also running in the riding are Jillian Foster for the Green Party and Jody O’Blenis, an independent.

Though most recent polling data leans in favour of the Conservatives, Urbaniak said the race will remain one to watch next week, even with one less candidate.

“This is far from decided,” he said. “This is going to be a very interesting race to watch on election night.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2021.

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This story was produced with the financial assistance of the Facebook and Canadian Press News Fellowship.

Danielle Edwards, The Canadian Press