NHL teams are pulling the goalie earlier, but is it still too late?

In their paper “Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications” published earlier this year, billionaire Clifford Asness of AQR Capital Management and New York University math professor Aaron Brown found that coaches don’t pull goalies nearly soon enough.

Using a mathematical model that took into account scoring probability, the deficit faced and time on the clock, the authors wrote that teams trailing by one should pull their netminder in favour of a sixth attacker with 6:10 remaining, and that a club facing a two-goal deficit should make the move with a whopping 13 minutes left.

In years past, NHL coaches down a goal or two in a game have usually pulled their goalie with anywhere from 60 seconds to two minutes remaining in regulation.

This season has seen goalies removed for a sixth skater earlier, often with about three minutes remaining when trailing by one.

That’s a pretty big step in the usually-conservative hockey world, but it’s hard to envision a team pulling its goalie the way the Stars did, or even sooner, on a consistent basis.

“There’s so many variables that are associated with those situations,” Pittsburgh Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan said recently. “It’s very difficult, in my mind, to quantify the perfect time.”

St. Louis Blues head coach Mike Yeo said a number of factors play into the decision of when to make the call for a sixth skater.

“Some of it has to be feel for the game, how much momentum you have,” he said. “When you’re dealing with the pulling the goalie, the odds are still against you.

“You have to live with the fact that sometimes it’s going to work and sometimes it’s not.”

Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock has pulled the goalie around the three-minute mark in each of his team’s three losses, but said the exact moment has a lot to do with his forward rotation.

“Any time after four minutes or three minutes, that’s kind of what we’re going through,” he said.

Calling it “an interesting discussion,” Sullivan agreed with Yeo that a coach has to know his players and the situation, and not simply trust what the numbers indicate is the ideal time to pull the goalie.

“That’s probably the art of coaching, where you know your team, you have a feel for how the game is going,” he said. “Based on that, you can try to make the best decision.”

SID MAKES HIS CASE

With plenty of talk about which 21-year-old superstar — Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews — currently owns the unofficial title of “the best player in the world,” Sidney Crosby showed once again he still belongs in the discussion.

The 31-year-old Penguins captain scored a jaw-dropping goal in overtime Tuesday to lead Pittsburgh over McDavid’s Oilers 6-5.

Crosby dangled past Ryan Strome — deking the Edmonton forward to his knees — avoided a stick check from Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse and then patiently flipped a backhand upstairs on goalie Cam Talbot.

“I think he showed tonight he’s the best player in the world,” Penguins forward Patric Hornqvist said afterwards. “He always shows up when (the media) are saying he’s not the best anymore.”

LOSING LUONGO A DISASTER

After missing the playoffs by a point last season, the Florida Panthers and their young, talented roster were a popular pick to take another step in 2018-19.

But the loss of 39-year-old goalie Roberto Luongo to a knee injury on opening night has turned that promise into an early nightmare.

Backup netminder James Reimer and third-stringer Michael Hutchinson have combined to put up a paltry .856 save percentage for Florida, which sat 1-3-3 and in 30th place heading into Wednesday’s road game against the New York Islanders.

The Panthers are scoring an average 3.14 goals per game and have positive possession numbers, but are allowing an even four against each time out.

HALLOWEEN COMES EARLY

Nashville head coach Peter Laviolette told his team he would don a bull mask if the Predators swept their recent road trip in Calgary and Edmonton.

After 5-3 victory over the Flames and a 3-0 shutout of the Oilers on back-to-back nights, Laviolette kept his word, doing his post-game media scrum while sporting the mask.

It’s not the first time Laviolette has made good on a bet. The Predators coaching staff wore Christmas-themed suits last December following a similar promise.

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Joshua Clipperton’s weekly NHL notebook will be published every Wednesday

Joshua Clipperton, The Canadian Press

by Canadian Press

NHL teams are pulling the goalie earlier, but is it still too late?

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