Does an Ugly Win Equal and Early Playoff Exit for Riders?

The Riders offense struggled and only scored their only touchdown in the last minute of the game for a 16-12 win and because of the CFL’s convoluted playoff formula, the Riders clinched a playoff spot. So now that the Riders have finally made it into the playoffs, the question is how far can they go in the postseason?

Watching Trevor Harris last week reminded me of watching Peyton Manning in his last season with the Denver Broncos. Manning had set several offensive records in Denver, but in his last season, his arm looked like it had it. Manning could not get much on the ball and it looked like his arm had finally reached the end of the line.

Manning was fortunate he had a great defense to carry him through the season, but watching Harris either overthrow or underthrow his receivers made me think the Rider receivers may not be the problem, the problem could be with Harris’ arm.

Harris will not be starting for the Riders Saturday against the Edmonton Elk with Jack Coan getting the start and Bradley Schager and Tommy Stevens expected to see action as well. Coan is in his third season as a Rider backup, and he has improved in practices where he gets a good velocity on the ball.

Coan played in the Riders exhibition game in Saskatoon against the Godless Stony Mountain Blue Bombers and despite throwing a couple of interceptions, did lead the Riders on some touchdown drives. This is probably Coan’s best chance to establish himself as QB 2 and heir apparent to Harris should he retire after this season.

The Riders did not have much of a consistent running game and I suspect injuries on the offensive line makes Harris an easy target for opposing defenses. Despite his problems moving the ball, in the fourth quarter Harris even threw in a 22-yard run and did everything he could to will a winning touchdown which finally came to Keesean Johnson.

The Rider defense was facing quarterback Dustin Crum, who I believe beat the Riders when Crum was quarterbacking for Ottawa. The Rider defense has had problems with mobile quarterbacks and other than a blown coverage leading to a Montreal touchdown in the first half, the defense did its part to keep Montreal close.

The failure of the Rider offense to ignite made me think that maybe despite throwing for over 5,000 yards this season, Harris is approaching his 41st birthday next year and even though he had prolonged his career by incorporating Tom Brady’s training for quarterbacks, when you throw that much at that age, you hit a wall if you don’t look after yourself.

So, who the Riders will face in the playoffs is yet to be determined. If Winnipeg loses to BC today, the Riders will finish third and face BC in the western semi-final. If Winnipeg wins and the Riders lose, the Riders finish fourth and head to Toronto for the eastern semi-final.

The Riders need to show some substantial improvement offensively before thinking about a playoff run. The offense needs to get into sync and with the Riders going the resting route for some of their players, the backups are going to have to show more than what they have.

Coan can zip the ball, but the big question is can he make his reads and make quick decisions before getting plastered by a defensive lineman? Based on what I saw in practice this week, I think Coan will surprise people, or I hope he will surprise people.

I am looking forward to seeing Schager again on the field and Schager is the Rider quarterback of the future. Schager can move, throw the ball, and demonstrate leadership like leading a touchdown drive after getting poked under the facemask by a hoodlum Blue Bomber.

The long story is the Riders will not be showing their hands to either BC or Toronto in the semifinal. This is going to be a bit a new look for the Riders and more importantly, it will identify who can be counted on next week and who should go on the practice roster.

Edmonton will be starting backups and with Cody Fajardo out along with running back Justin Rankin, the opportunity is there is beat the Elk and stay in the west. The Riders toughest game in the west will be against the BC Lions and the Riders will be definite underdogs in that game.

If the Riders beat BC, and that is possible, they will probably have an easier time dealing with the Elk. As much as I agree with giving vets rest for games that won’t do anything for the team in the standings, if the Elk sit as many as I think they will, and they won’t play again until the western final November 7, this is three weeks without vets seeing any action and football is a game based on consistency and repetition and when you are playing in your first playoff game in years, it is easy to imagine the Elk thinking they have this and don’t have to show up.

If the Riders go east, the eastern semifinal against Toronto is the more winnable game. Toronto is wildly inconsistent and while quarterback Chad Kelly can throw four touchdowns in a game, he can also throw four interceptions in a game. I like the Riders chances against Toronto, but after that the Riders go to Montreal.

I’ve seen the Riders win in Montreal, and I suspect the Riders would prefer to make Montreal the story and if Montreal gets two outstanding player nominations in Alexander and Philpot, they will be feeling pretty good about themselves. The trick to beating Montreal is to be physical with them but you wonder how effective that will be with 20,000 drunk Als fans blowing air horns.

Staying in the west makes the most sense. The Riders toughest game will come against BC, although I am not ready to assume Edmonton will assume the submissive position against the Riders. If you get Montreal away from their stadium to a neutral site, or even Calgary, you can see a path to repeating as Grey Cup champs.

The problem is despite the best efforts of CFL Commissioner Stewart Johnson, it has been a long time since we have seen parity like this and offensive stats to match. You can make a case for any of the playoff teams to win the Grey Cup if they get on a roll.

So, on Saturday it will be the Elk backups against the Rider backups. The Riders may have a slight advantage on that there is not much film on Coan, so expect Edmonton to blitz a lot to try to throw him off his stride.

For the sake of argument, let’s say the Riders win 29-26. As long as no one gets injured, I would be happy about this because it provides Rider Head Coach Cory Mace with alternatives. If Coan shows he can handle the offense, next week Mace might be more willing to swap out Harris for Coan to try to spark the Rider offense. If Edmonton rests a lot of starters, they will lose the western final because three weeks between starts is not healthy for a team looking to win the Grey Cup.

Tonight, we have Montreal at Toronto, a potential preview of the eastern final, except it seems both teams will be resting a lot of starters depending on their salary cap room. Montreal will not worry about losing to the Riders, but they will want to send Toronto a message and stifle their high-flying offense.

So Toronto will either play possum or go all out to send Montreal the message getting to the Grey Cup is not a given for the Alouettes. Montreal should win this 32-28.

The one game where you might not see as many vets resting is the second game on Friday featuring the Blue Bombers going to Vancouver to face the Lions. Winnipeg needs to win to get in, but if Toronto is inconsistent, the Bombers are the football version of Sybil, a woman with many multiple personalities.

The Bombers are placing their hopes with Zach Collaros while BC will be starting a lot of backups, but I would not be surprised to see BC starters in for at least a quarter and maybe even a half to get some work before the western semifinal.

Since the BC lineup is not quite cleared up, it will probably be a close game with the Bombers desperate to win and get into the playoffs. I think BC will play more starts and they should win 30-26 over the Bombers.

Then we have Ottawa going to Hamilton and Ottawa broke their perfect losing season by beating Toronto on a last-minute touchdown. Ottawa hired Mike Morreale as their new president, and he will be reviewing the status of Ottawa Head Coach Ryan Dinwiddie who will likely hang on another year due to Ottawa having no room under the football administration cap to absorb Dinwiddie’s salary and hire a new coach.

Ottawa is coming off a season high, Hamilton is not and while Ottawa will try to end the year on a two-game winning streak, I think Hamilton pulls this out 31-27.

So tune in Saturday at 1 pm to see if the Riders offense can look efficient and the Rider defense is figuring out how to stop the deep pass. The Rider’s defense was improved and I suspect a lot of that has to do with Mace calling defensive signals.

If Mace is doing that again, the Riders may pull this off. But then again…enjoy the last weekend of the regular season.