By Dori Modney with files from Statistics Canada

Production drop of principal prairie field crops: Statistics Canada

Aug 30, 2021 | 3:45 PM

LETHBRIDGE, AB. — As harvest is well underway, the latest data from Statistics Canada indicates what many in the farming community were already expecting – reduced crop production.

While farmers are projected to harvest more corn for grain, there will be reduced harvesting of wheat, canola, soybeans, barley and oats. Recent yield models using satellite imagery, confirms how badly lower production has been, driven by ongoing drought conditions in Western Canada, as well as higher-than-average temperatures throughout the growing season.

An assessment of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) curves, which are a measure of plant health, indicated that in almost all parts of the Prairies, crops reached peak health well ahead of normal. In some instances, peak NDVI occurred up to four weeks earlier, before decreasing rapidly as a lack of moisture and high temperatures took a toll on plant health.

The Crop Condition Assessment Program (CCAP) indicates This is the first time since 1987, when Statistics Canada began monitoring crop conditions using coarse resolution satellite images, that NDVI curves have peaked so early in the growing season.

National wheat production is projected to decrease 34.8% year over year to 22.9 million tonnes in 2021, on lower anticipated yields (-28.7% to 37.2 bushels per acre) and less harvested area (-8.5% to 22.7 million acres).

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The decrease in wheat area was largely due to spring wheat, which was not only impacted by drought but less seeded area this year as well.

Crop growth to July 26 – Statistics Canada

Harvested wheat area in Saskatchewan is expected to fall 7.9% to 11.8 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease 33.8% to 30.4 bushels per acre to bring total wheat production down 39.1% year over year to 9.7 million tonnes.

By comparison, Alberta’s wheat yield is expected to decrease 41.0% to 32.9 bushels per acre in 2021, while harvested area is projected to fall 7.0%, resulting in a 45.2% production decrease to 6.1 million tonnes.

Wheat production in Manitoba is projected to fall 24.1% to 4.0 million tonnes in 2021, the result of lower harvested area (-17.2% to 2.6 million acres) and lower yields (-8.3% to 56.2 bushels per acre).

National canola yields expected to be the lowest since 2012, falling 24.3% to 14.7 million tonnes in 2021, as drought conditions drove yields to their lowest level in a decade (-30.1% to 29.2 bushels per acre), offsetting higher harvested area (+8.1% to 22.2 million acres). This would be the lowest canola production since 2012.

Canola production in Saskatchewan is expected to decrease 32.8% to 7.4 million tonnes. Lower yields (-36.8% to 27.0 bushels per acre) are expected to offset the increase in harvested area (+6.3% to 12.0 million acres).

In 2021, Alberta is expected to produce 14.0% less canola for a total of 4.5 million tonnes. Yields are projected to decrease 25.9% to 29.8 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to rise 16.0% to 6.6 million acres.

Barley and oat production will also be impacted by dry conditions.

Barley production is expected to fall 27% year over year to 7.8 million tonnes in 2021. Despite higher anticipated harvested area (+7.8% to 7.5 million acres), lower yields (-32.3% to 48.1 bushels per acre) due to hot, dry conditions are expected to push national production lower.

Oat production is projected to fall 32.9% to 3.1 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to decrease 14.2% to 2.8 million acres and yields are expected to drop 21.8% year over year to 71.4 bushels per acre in 2021.

On a slightly positive side, national corn for grain production is projected to increase 0.8% to 13.7 million tonnes, with yields anticipated to rise to 158.4 bushels per acre, even though harvested area is expected to fall 2.3% to 3.4 million acres.

Full information on the principal field crop production up to July 2021, can be found on the Statistics Canada website.