By Alice McFarlane

Analyst expects an increase in pea acreage in 2021

Jan 13, 2021 | 4:42 PM

MELFORT, Sask. — Most farmers have made their cropping plans for this year, but strong prices may have them rethinking those decisions.

Exports for most commodities have been every strong and there are few carryover stocks to be concerned about.

Chuck Penner with LeftField Commodity Research discussed the pea market outlook during the virtual CropSphere conference.

He said for many years farmers were trying to figure out where they were going to lose the least amount of money.

“This is not one of those years,” Penner said. “It’s a matter of where the opportunities are the largest. In that kind of uncertainty, we may not see rotations shift that much. ”

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Penner forecasted a seven per cent increase in yellow pea area and a 19 per cent decline for green peas.

“I think as we see new crop yellow pea bids firm up well above $8 in a lot of cases I think that’s enough to drive up some acres for yellows,” Penner said.

If green peas are showing only a small premium or even a discount that means green pea acres are going to drop down, according to Penner.

“My experience tells me that you need roughly a $2 a bushel premium to get more green pea acres at the expense of yellows and we’re certainly much less than that these days and could get even further so more of a drop in green pea acres.”

China continues to be Canada’s largest yellow pea customer. Penner said there are indications China may diversify its purchases next year by looking to Ukraine as a second option. He added it is not a factor this crop year because Ukraine has no export supplies.

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alice.mcfarlane@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @AliceMcF