Province releases planning scenarios for COVID-19, prepares for 153,000 to 408,000 cases

They are not predictions or expectations, but the province has released three ‘what if’ scenarios to assess the potential impact of COVID-19 transmission on Saskatchewan’s health care system.

These scenarios plan for – but do not predict – anywhere between 153,000 and 408,000 cases, and anywhere between 3,075 and 8,370 deaths.

To show the different responses in ‘flattening the curve’, the Saskatchewan Health Authority (SHA) explained modelling for three separate response scenarios in a 45-page report.

This chart was included in the province’s modelling scenarios. They are not a prediction or expectation of what’s to come in the COVID-19 pandemic. (submitted photo/SHA)

Worst scenario

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The first, and worst case scenario was modelled on a high range of virus reproductivity, meaning if one person infected with COVID-19 in Saskatchewan would go on to infect four others. This scenario assumed the province continued with its current measures to combat the virus, including testing, tracing and physical distancing.

The estimates for that model suggested 4,265 COVID-19 patients would be in acute care simultaneously, with 1,280 hospitalized patients in ICU, 90 to 95 per cent of which would require ventilation.

This scenario modelling suggested 408,000 cases across the province, with 8,370 deaths. Hospital admissions per day would be 710, with 215 admitted to ICU.

Mid scenario

The second scenario was modelled on a mid-range virus reproductivity — meaning one person infected would go on to infect 2.76 others. This scenario also assumed the province would continue with its current response levels.

In that scenario, modelling estimates were that at the apex of infections, 1,265 people would be in acute care simultaneously, with 380 in ICU, 90 to 95 per cent of which would require ventilation.

The estimates suggested 262,000 infections across the province, with 5,260 deaths. Hospital admissions per day at the peak would be 205 with 60 admitted to ICU.

Better scenario

The third scenario modelling was based on the virus reproductive levels similar to the Wuhan province in China, where the virus originated. That rate of infection would be one infected person passing the virus to 2.4 people.

This scenario assumed the province continued with its current response levels. At its peak, the scenario suggested 390 patients would be in acute care simultaneously, with 120 in the ICU. Of those hospitalized 90 to 95 per cent would require a ventilator.

The low range scenario suggested 153,000 cases across the province, with 3,075 deaths. Hospital admissions per day would be 60, with 20 people admitted to ICU.

It’s important to note the models and the scenarios are not predictive, but are based on the limited information available for the province to guide its planning.

The current interventions have made a difference, the province says, along with key public health strategies. That includes increased testing, identifying cases early, expanding contact tracing, enforcing health orders and managing cases, clusters and outbreaks.

A plan for the North

The SHA’s COVID-19 response in the event of increased demand for hospital capacity in the province’s North. (submitted photo/SHA)

The province has contingency plans for its hospital use if there was a steady increase of COVID-19 patients. In some areas of the province, hospitals or facilities would be converted to only accept patients with the virus. Others would be designated as ‘non-COVID hospitals’.

The Sakatchewan Health Authority’s Integrated Northern Health area (essentially the top half of the province north of Saskatoon) would have hospitals with a mixed patient cohort, and non-COVID hospitals.

Prince Albert, North Battleford, Meadow Lake, Nipawin, Melfort, La Ronge, La Loche, Ile a La Crosse, and Lloydminster would have mixed patient hospitals.

Facilities in Loon Lake, Turtleford, Maidstone, Unity, Shellbrook, Rosthern, Tisdale, Porcupine Plain, and Hudson would only accept non-COVID patients.

SHA Emergency Operations Lead Derek Miller said field hospitals in Regina and Saskatoon will be activated immediately.

But according to planning models, these measures would only be needed in the North in the event of a worst-case scenario.

“Field hospitals have been identified as a potential contingency for the North but at this point in time we’re not activating any field hospitals in any Northern centres,” he said.

In the event of exceeded capacity to intensive care units in northern hospitals, there would be a co-ordinated provincial approach which would place rural and northern patients in urban locations, the province said.

Miller said the SHA will employ a co-ordinated provincial response to manage case load across Saskatchewan.

“Regina and Saskatoon have scaled up their ICU capacity to allow for the admission of patients from the North and rural once they are exceeding their capacity,” he said.

—With files from Alison Sandstrom

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panews@jpbg.ca