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By Teena Monteleone

Sask votes 2024

How northern constituencies could affect the provincial election

Oct 3, 2024 | 6:00 AM

As with all polling projections, Daniel Westlake is taking what he sees with a grain of salt, but when it comes to battlegrounds in the upcoming provincial election, the political science professor is sure the two Prince Albert ridings will be ones to watch.

“In some ways they’re barometers, I think, of the ability of the NDP to get outside of Regina and Saskatoon,” said Westlake, who is an assistant professor in the department of Political Science at the University of Saskatchewan. “Northcote looks the more likely to go NDP and Carlton less likely, but if the NDP were to win government, they’d probably need both. So, definitely two interesting ridings to watch.”

If the Sask. Party wins both ridings comfortably, Westlake said that will be bad news for the NDP and their ability to expand outside of their Saskatoon and Regina bases.

The Prince Albert Northcote constituency was traditionally an NDP stronghold (from 1991-2011) but has flipped between the Sask. Party and the NDP in every election since. In 2020, the Saskatchewan Party candidate Alana Ross defeated the NDP incumbent Nicole Rancourt by 195 votes. Both of them are in the running again and Westlake said that name recognition and experience will help both candidates.

“Yeah, I think that’s an advantage – having somebody who knows how to campaign and knows the riding well. At the same time, it’s worth noting that good local campaigns are probably worth between two and 10 per cent depending on the study you’re looking at and the data you’re using. So, if Northcote is close, that two to 10 per cent, I’d usually guess around four or five [per cent], usually matters, but a good local campaign is not enough to turn a riding that’s safe for a party into a competitive riding,” he said.

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Joining Ross and Rancourt in the race for Prince Albert-Northcote this time around is Green Party candidate Jarren Jones, an EMT who currently works at a health centre laboratory in the city.

The nearby constituency of Rosthern-Shellbrook has seen the Sask. Party win by large margins in the last several elections. It’s also the home riding for Sask. Party leader Scott Moe. The NDP candidate is Mark Thunderchild of Thunderchild First Nation. Westlake thinks the challenger may garner more votes from the Indigenous community.

“There is evidence that there’s an affinity voting effect for Indigenous candidates as well as other minority groups where people are more likely to turnout if they see someone who comes from their background,” he said.

But Westlake said it’s unlikely to be enough to beat Scott Moe.

“The NDP probably needs to start breaking into those kinds of rural ridings outside of the very north of Saskatchewan, but they’ve got a lot of work to do that.”

Daniel Westlake is an assistant professor at the University of Saskatchewan specializing in Canadian politics. (submitted photo/Daniel Westlake)

Another riding that falls into what Westlake called ‘the Sask. Party heartland’ is Saskatchewan Rivers which includes Big River and Choiceland, Meath Park, and Candle Lake. The riding is held by Nadine Wilson who became an independent member of the legislature in 2021 and now serves as the leader of the Saskatchewan United Party.

“We’ve seen now in a couple of different provinces where further right parties try to make inroads against centre-right parties and there isn’t much evidence they’ve been able to do so,” Westlake said.

Wilson’s challenger is Erik Schmalz who has taken a leave from his position as the reeve for the RM of Prince Albert. Prior to that he was a member of the RCMP. The NDP candidate is Doug Racine, a military veteran and lawyer.

“I could see Nadine Wilson taking some votes out of the Sask. Party, but she’d have to take a lot out of the Sask. Party to win and that’s probably a tall ask. So, maybe the riding looks a little closer than it did last time, but it’s another one I’d be surprised to see the Sask. Party lose,” Westlake added.

The price of political blunders

In the last year, the Sask. Party incumbents for Battlefords and Meadow Lake, Jeremy Cockrill and Jeremy Harrison, have made headlines; Cockrill for being investigated by the ethics commissioner and also for making some poor choices in words. Harrison stepped down as Government House Leader after admitting he brought a gun to the Legislative Building ahead of a hunting trip a decade ago. Westlake said partisan voters will give the politicians a pass, but others may be turned off by the errors and that could have an impact province-wide.

“And this is where I think the impact is more likely to be felt because if you’ve got voters in suburban Saskatoon and suburban Regina having a look at this and you have even just a few voters saying ‘this looks bad, I’m not comfortable with this type of party’ then that could cost the Sask. Party some seats because those seats are already close,” Westlake said.

Grant Ainsley is a public relations professional from Edmonton who also does media training. He said political gaffes are often hard to overcome.

“Once you get targeted as somebody that spoke out of line and said something you shouldn’t have, then eyebrows get raised when it happens again. And so, whether that’s fair or not, that is reality. If you have to apologize for something you said that you shouldn’t, every time you say something going forward, statements you make are going to be challenged by the media and I’m sure the public is going to question some of these things a little bit more than if it was your first rodeo,” he said.

Taking a look at the broader picture and competitiveness of the election, Westlake said the path for the NDP or any party is tough. Outside of Athabasca and Cumberland – the two northern ridings he says the NDP could win, there are 29 ridings including Saskatoon, Regina, Prince Albert and Moose Jaw which are all considered safe Sask. Party territory.

“The Sask. Party can probably count on 29 ridings and they need 31 for a majority. So, if they take a seat in Prince Albert and a seat in Moose Jaw, which you could probably give them better than 50 per cent odds to do that — that’s an election win.”

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with files from Glynn Brothen

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teena.monteleone@pattisonmedia.com