Nothing is as it seems in first week of CFL season

First off, you would think the rematch would take place in the home of the Grey Cup winner so fans could get excited about raising a new banner. The CFL and TSN have bent over backward to praise the Bombers over the last few years and mind you the Bombers have earned it with consistent play.

They have lost the last two Grey Cups after winning two, and they came out flat against Montreal should be a warning sign that keeping the band together by whatever means necessary doesn’t stop Winnipeg from experiencing what every teams go through – getting old fast.

The problem is how much of Winnipeg’s offensive dysfunction is a result of the lack of continuity on offense. They have lost some important pieces, but they have replacements which may or may work out, but if no one thinks exhibition games should be used as a guide to predict season success for a team, neither should the first game of the season.

Montreal’s defense is for real, and the additions of Darnel Sankey and Shawn Lemon were probably the tipping point last year for the team moving from pretender to contender. While Cody Fajardo finally won a game in Winnipeg, taking another talking point away from Bomber fans rationalizing any misstep by their Stony Mountain crew.

Montreal moves on from Winnipeg to play Edmonton in Edmonton and this is shaping up to be a must win game for the Elk. The Elk gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter to lose to the Riders 29-21 and the Elk gave the game to the Riders.

McLeod Bethel-Thompson moved the Elk and was effective in stretches of the game, but also gave up easy fumbles and threw challenging interceptions. Using Tre Ford as a change of pace guy to make the opposing defenses run if anything else and get worn out would have been a smart move for the Elk, but if Chris Jones has established anything in his time as a head coach, he is not the greatest guide for quarterbacks under his command.

Edmonton has essentially a rookie defensive backfield, but a good defensive line and I am not sure about their linebackers yet. The Elk gave up a blown coverage or two and while their DBs probably have talent and speed, they are also rookies and they need to see play action until they get more comfortable with each other and what they are being asked to do on the field.

Montreal has a plodding offense under Fajardo, but Montreal head coach Jason Maas gets the most of Fajardo and his offense by having a lot of movement and even some nice flea flickers to show the team is offense is not just in game manager mode. I am not sure how well Montreal can run against Edmonton’s d-line, but if their defensive secondary is not ready to take a step forward, look for Montreal to set up mismatches between their receivers and the Edmonton defensive backs.

Edmonton lost Kryan Moore for the season with a torn ACL, the second of his career, and signed former Rider receiver Tevin Jones who was in Montreal’s training camp and may be a source of info to the Elk about Montreal’s offensive structure and strategy.

Jones is talented, but his head was never in the playbook, which is why the Riders let him walk and if Montreal cut him, then he couldn’t master an offense that he had first learned in Riderville.

The crowd in Edmonton was abysmal, although the rain and the Oilers game may have had an impact. Edmonton looks like it could give all teams a tough game, and this should be no exception, but Montreal’s defense and special teams should key Montreal to a 23-16 win.

Winnipeg goes to Ottawa who had the week one bye with their new quarterback, former Winnipeg back up Dru Brown, waiting to start his new career as a messiah. Ottawa was busy in the free agency market, and they looked competitive in their exhibition games.

Ottawa also has the advantage of seeing how Winnipeg looks on offense and defense while Winnipeg is probably unsure of what schemes Ottawa will try to use against them.

Look to Ottawa to try to go deep on Winnipeg, testing out their defensive backs and seeing if Adam Bighill is truly back from his calf injury that playing on in last year’s Grey Cup probably cost Winnipeg. Winnipeg will probably look to batter down Ottawa’s defensive line with their running attack and then exploit holes in the Ottawa secondary with a passing game.

The problem is I don’t think Winnipeg has a credible deep passing game. Winnipeg lost Kenny Lawlor with a reported arm fracture, but he was still on the roster and not the six-game injury list, so maybe he will be back, but will he be effective?

Brady Olivera is questionable for the game, he was not around for a lot of training camp, which puts pressure on Johnny Augustine at running back to do enough to keep Ottawa from pinning their ears back and blitzing Zach Collaros every play.

If Bighill is back for the defense, that will help, but not solve, the problems in the Winnipeg secondary. Those problems could be solved with more experience together, but while many are picking Winnipeg to win based on last week being an aberration, it is interesting to note the team with the first week bye tends to win their first game in the second week of the season more than they lose it.

The other thing to keep in mind is Ottawa beat Winnipeg last year behind the running of back up quarterback Dustin Crum. Defenses, especially older defenses, hate running quarterbacks because they tend to tire out the defense which leads to people getting open, and mistakes being made. While Brown is starting, throwing in a running quarterback now and then will do more to tire Winnipeg out than anything else.

Ottawa has a chance to make a statement to their fans they are serious about contending this year. What better way of making that statement than by beating the loser of the last two Grey Cups?

I’m going out on a limb, but I like Ottawa’s coaching staff and I would say Ottawa wins a close one 27-24

Calgary’s 32-24 win over Hamilton featured two teams with non-existent defensive backfields trying to keep each other out of the end zone. The return of Bo Levi Mitchell to Calgary for the first time after signing with Hamilton as a free

agent was an emotional, but Michell was not helped by his receivers spending extra time with the bacon in the team buffet and dropping passes they should have caught.

Calgary got better play from their offensive line, had a bit of a running game and not all their receivers were taken to hospital as they were last year. Jake Maier rolled out more than he did last year, which bought him time to get his receivers open.

Calgary’s defensive secondary was non-existent, especially when Hamilton put on a charge in the fourth quarter only to fall short. If this continues, Calgary should be entertaining this year, but like Edmonton and Hamilton they are going to suffer growing pains with young defenders until they get more experience and confidence in what they are doing.

One of the interesting things about this game is Calgary finding their running game, although against Hamilton’s rebuilt defensive line, that shouldn’t have been a stretch. A good running game will take pressure off an underwhelming quarterback and expect Calgary, who goes to BC for a 50 Cent concert and may decide to stay for a football game, to try to run as much as possible to take the expected 50,000 fans out of the game.

Calgary should be wary of further injuries to their receiving corps, but a good running game should get BC back on their heels. Calgary and Hamilton are works in progress and a lot of how far these teams go will depend on their ability to stay healthy and perhaps pick up needed offensive and defensive help when possible.

Hamilton’s defensive secondary is also rookie filled, which seems to be a recurring theme around the CFL as defensive coaches are rebuilding with younger players and looking to let them play and make mistakes at this time of the year in the hopes the experience picked up will pay dividends in November for the Grey Cup.

Hamilton’s offensive woes again Calgary were triggered by a lack of playing time with Mitchell, so it stands to reason the more Mitchell practices with the receivers, the better their timing will be and the less likely they will have the same number of drops against Saskatchewan this week that they did against Calgary.

As mentioned, Calgary goes to BC for a 50 Cent concert Saturday night and since BC is hosting the Grey Cup, it will be a nice taste of the crowd atmosphere and the amazing job BC has done to bring fans back to the game.

BC was hurt in their 35-27 loss to Toronto by the poor play of their offensive line giving up six sacks and almost allowing Vernon Adams Jr. to get stomped on a regular basis. BC also hurt their defensive line not really getting any pressure against Toronto.

Calgary does not have a defensive line in the same league with Toronto (who cut defensive lineman Shawn Oakman on Tuesday who was available in free agency) so BC’s offensive line should not be beaten like a gong again this week. Calgary does have problems with inexperience in their defensive backfield and BC does have problems with their short yard scheme since back-up Jake Dolegala does not seem capable of getting small enough behind his offensive linemen to find the yardage needed.

While most are picking BC to trounce Calgary, it may not be as easy as fans and pundits think, especially if Calgary’s running game is real and not just a one game wonder. If Calgary can control the ball and line of scrimmage and keep BC from getting their offense any sort of rhythm, then I think Calgary can pull off an upset and giving BC a nightmare to open a season they started off as consensus western champs and Grey Cup contenders.

Calgary grinds out a 33-26 win over BC.

Hamilton comes home to host the Riders who are coming off a 29-21 win over Edmonton. While it is easy and likely true the Riders had the game handed to them by the Elk, all prior indicators before the game pointed to a much-needed win for Edmonton.

This is the 75th anniversary of the Edmonton team and they brought in their legends to hopefully provide some inspiration to the current Elk who are trying, maybe, to help their coach Chris Jones keep his job and be more attractive to whatever private ownership will buy the team.

Edmonton brought in McLeod Bethel Thompson, who led Toronto into the Grey Cup game but did not finish it before going south of the border for a USFL stint. Jones doesn’t seem to trust Tre Ford and his scrambling and is hoping MBT can give Elk a bit of consistency from the feast or famine approaches their offense has had the last two years.

MBT also has consistency issues, fumbling the ball or getting stripped of it in some of the more inopportune moments. Those moments the Riders took advantage of

and their opportunism is giving fans hope heading into the first of a home and home stretch with Hamilton.

Rider quarterback Trevor Harris showed no ill effects from his broken kneecap bone, coming as no surprise as broken bones heal better than torn ACLs. Harris took advantage of a inexperienced Edmonton defensive secondary to create mismatches with his receiving corps, especially Shawn Bane Jr. and I would think that is something the Riders would want to continue against Hamilton and its inexperienced secondary.

What came as a surprise in the Rider win was the non-existence of the running game, which was supposed to feature the Riders free agent acquisition AJ Ouellette. Ouellette was not helped by the ejection of offensive lineman Logan Ferland who punched an Elks player.

Ferland is a physical lineman, and the Elk have a good defensive line which is tough to run against. The Riders did have more success with their pass blocking and if Ferland can keep from getting ejected, maybe the Riders will be able to run the ball more like they expected.

They may be encouraged by Hamilton’s lack of a run defense, but the Riders need to avoid repeating the same mistakes they did last year – taking stupid penalties. Rider head coach Cory Mace has emphasized playing nasty but within the rules and the Riders to establish they won’t be pushed around as in prior seasons will need to exercise greater restraint than what they did against Edmonton.

The problem is when you play a team back-to-back, the level of emotion tends to go up. The Riders have an opportunity to take advantage of a questionable defense but will face a challenge with Mitchell who was let down by his receivers’ dropping balls.

If Mitchell gets an opportunity to stand in the pocket and pick the Riders defensive secondary apart, it may be a long day at Tim Horton’s Field. Mitchell will be facing a team coached by Mace who is very familiar with Mitchell from their time in Calgary and from coaching against him when Mace was the defensive coordinator of Toronto last year.

I think the Riders will try to shake things up against Hamilton, especially if they can bring newly signed defensive back Marcus Sayles into the lineup. If the Riders blitz a lot, they will be dependent on their defensive backs being able to stick with

Hamilton’s receivers long enough to force Mitchell to either throw it away or force a throw and risk an interception.

Hamilton will attempt to exploit a traditional Rider fault of not being able to stop the run and get their running game going to keep it out of Trevor Harris’s hands. Harris is a rhythm passer so if Hamilton can disrupt Harris’s timing, they will frustrate the Riders offense and force them to press, perhaps leading to turnovers.

Edmonton has a better defensive line than Hamilton and the Riders played them well. If the Riders can run against Hamilton like Calgary did, the Riders will pick up their second road win in a row and beat Hamilton 30-22.

Toronto’s 35-27 win over BC featured a dominant defense over the lackluster offense of the Lions. The question mark for the Argos was whether Cameron Dukes could fill in for Chad Kelly who reached an out of court settlement this week in a lawsuit filed by a former team employee.

I saw Dukes play for the Argos last year against the Riders and was impressed with his abilities. I didn’t share any doubts about him, and people forget Argo head coach Ryan Dinwiddie is an excellent quarterback coach.

The Argos cutting of Oakman, who I really liked the last two years, may have some other underlying cause to it, but I suspect Oakman’s production has been slowly going down and the Argos could use the money saved from his contract and apply it elsewhere where the team may need more help.

If Dukes continues his mastery of the Toronto offense, this raises an interesting question of what do the Argos do when Kelly is done with his nine-game suspension. If Kelly completes his required counselling about treating women with respect, but the Argos are winning, I suspect the Argos will go with Dukes, keep Kelly on the bench and look after the season whether to trade or cut him.

The Argos are enjoying the bye week and so have a chance to tinker with their line up and perhaps bring some players in or new schemes on defense. If the Argos haven’t lost a step, the 2024 season will be one of the more interesting and competitive seasons the CFL has seen in awhile.

by Greg Urbanoski

Nothing is as it seems in first week of CFL season

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