Saskatchewan Finance Minister Donna Harpauer. (Lisa Schick/980 CJME file photo)

By CKOM News Staff

Mid-year report forecasts $1.1-billion surplus for Saskatchewan in 2022-23

Nov 29, 2022 | 10:23 AM

Saskatchewan’s economy continues to be on the upswing.

In the mid-year financial report issued Tuesday, the provincial government forecast a surplus of $1.1 billion for 2022-23. That’s up $50 million from the first-quarter forecast and $1.6 billion from the budget, which was forecasting a deficit of $463 million.

“Our province’s strong economy and resources that belong to all Saskatchewan people are contributing to the province’s bottom line,” Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Donna Harpauer said in a media release.

“Revenue is forecast to be up from budget, largely the result of high potash and oil prices, as well as higher taxation revenue which reflects solid economic growth. Using higher-than-expected revenue to help people and businesses address higher costs due to inflation, while reducing the province’s debt, is growth that works for everyone.”

The province’s revenue is forecast to be $19.5 billion, up nearly $337 million from the first quarter and up $2.4 billion from budget.

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The mid-year forecast says the public debt will be $27.9 billion, down from $30 billion at budget and $28.3 billion in the first-quarter report.

Non-renewable resources continue to push the economy. Revenue from that sector is expected to be up nearly $1.4 billion from budget to $4.3 billion, but that figure is down $460 million from first quarter.

According to the government, potash revenue is expected to increase by $834 million from budget and oil revenue is to be up $317 million from budget.

The report says the price of potash has risen $164 per tonne from budget to $571 per tonne at mid-year, but that’s down from the first-quarter forecast of $625. The price of oil has gone up $15 per barrel to $91 per barrel at mid-year, but that’s down from the forecast of $97.50 in the first quarter.

The province also is forecasting $1 billion more in tax revenue from budget to $9.1 billion, an increase of $500 million from the first-quarter report.

The total increase includes $651 million more in corporate income tax, $249 million more in individual income tax and $160 million more in provincial sales tax.

Other own-source revenue is expected to provide $2.4 billion in 2022-23, an increase of $237 million from budget and $147 million from the first quarter.

Federal transfers are forecast to be $3.4 billion at mid-year, up around $155 million from budget and more than $90 million from the first quarter.

The government said those increases were offset by a drop in net income from Government Business Enterprises. The budget forecast that income at $742 million, but the mid-year report is forecasting $261 million.

That drop of $481 million includes a decrease of $280 million in the SGI Auto Fund due to lower investment income and higher claim expenses, and a decrease of $153 million from SaskPower due to increased fuel and purchased power costs.

The mid-year report says expenses are forecast at $18.4 billion, up $795 million from budget and up $287 million from the first quarter.

The increase in expenses from budget includes $450 million to cover the $500 affordability cheques being mailed to all residents 18 and over who filed a tax return in 2021, and $204 million in expected increases Crop Insurance Corporation indemnities and AgriStability benefits paid in 2021 and 2022.

The mid-year report says the province’s real GDP is expected to grow 5.3 per cent in 2022, up from 3.7 per cent in budget. It’s expected to grow another 1.9 per cent in 2023.

The report says employment in the province is up 20,400 jobs from the same time last year, while wholesale trade has increased 53.7 per cent over the same time in 2021.