Justin Trudeau won re-election in a result very similar to the election in 2019. (Canadian Press)

By Rob Mahon

Election Analysis

‘Something negative for every party’: political expert helps break down 2021 federal election

Sep 22, 2021 | 10:00 AM

The 2019 and 2021 federal elections ended up being nearly mirror images of one another in terms of the results. That, in and of itself, may have all parties involved feeling a bit down about it.

Despite a price tag of over $600 million, the federal election did little to shift the balance of power or lead to any changes in the way the Liberal party under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would have to govern. Almost every party comes away from the election with a bit of disappointment.

“To me, there’s something kind of negative in there for every party,” said Dr. Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor in the political studies department at the University of Saskatchewan. “The Liberals didn’t get the majority they wanted, in large part because they couldn’t win the vast majority of the seats in Quebec. The reality of Canadian elections is if the Liberals are facing a united Conservative party, they need to win most of Quebec to win a majority.”

That’s not to say the Conservatives are happy with the results of the election. According to Westlake, their biggest gripe will be failing to make a breakthrough in suburban Ontario, while the NDP will regret taking steps back in Quebec and Toronto.

“My sense is, a lot of these trends have been developing over time,” he said. “It’s notable, depending on what happens in Davenport, the NDP might go three elections without winning a seat in Toronto. The Conservatives, they’re weak in suburban Ontario but they were weak in suburban Ontario in 2019 and 2015 as well.”

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Smaller parties had cause for complaint as well. The Green party lost a huge chunk of their support in the popular vote, falling from 6.55 per cent to 2.3 per cent. They finished with less than half of the popular vote of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), but the PPC failed to win any seats.

“If they win five per cent of the vote, that’s not going to turn into seats for them,” Westlake said. “Where they’re strongest, particularly here in Saskatchewan, also tend to be Conservative strongholds, particularly in rural ridings. That means that even if the PPC starts to see an uptick in its vote share, its impact on seats can be relatively limited.”

Westlake also said Trudeau can still work with the Bloc Quebecois or the NDP to get legislation passed, with his expectation being Trudeau will work most closely with the NDP.

“Like the election results, I think we’re in for more of the same until however long it is before the next election happens,” Westlake added.

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rob.mahon@pattisonmedia.com

On Twitter: @RobMahonPxP