SHA planning for significantly better COVID-19 scenario

Big decline in reproductive number

New Saskatchewan specific information shows Saskatchewan’s Basic Reproductive Number for the virus as 3.12. This means the average number of people a single COVID-19 positive person in Saskatchewan would infect, had no interventions been undertaken and everyone was susceptible.

With the introduction of public health measures in March and April 2020, the Effective Reproductive Number in Saskatchewan is 0.7 as of April 25. This is the average number of people one person with the virus is likely to infect at the current time, after the effects of the interventions have been factored in. This changes daily as behaviours and interventions change.

SHA Senior Medical Information Officer Dr. Jenny Basran said the SHA will monitor this number closely, with the goal to keep it under 1.0.

“If we start inching closer to that then it’s a warming signal to say let’s pause for the moment and look at what could be contributing to that and whether or not adjustments need to be made,” Basran said.

While the number of cases in the province is dropping, SHA operations centre lead Derek Miller said the health care system continues to prepare for a worst case scenario.

“We know that we must be able to respond to potential COVID-19 surges in demand in the future and that is a principle element of this plan,” Miller said.

The Effective Reproductive Number is at 0.7 compared to the 3.12 had no interventions been undertaken. (Government of Saskatchewan)

The SHA also released updated information on the adjustments it is making to its COVID-19 Readiness Plan as a result of this new data.

Highlights from the offensive portion of the SHA’s COVID-19 Health System Readiness plan include:

• Maximizing testing capacity, accessibility and speed, including ongoing expansion of rapid testing capability across the province and outreach to populations less likely to seek testing;

• Surging contact tracing to stay ahead of demand, including a plan to meet any scenario up to 618 news cases per day in Saskatchewan

“This new data brings with it cautious optimism,” Saskatchewan Health Authority CEO Scott Livingstone said. “Thanks to the Saskatchewan people’s efforts and our own robust actions on testing, contact tracing and other public health measures, we are flattening the curve and helping ensure our health system can manage the surge in demand that may come from COVID-19.”

The Intervention Comparison shows Saskatchewan’s case count compared to other jurisdictions and countries. (Government of Saskatchewan)

Return of elective surgeries approaching

The SHA and Ministry of Health are also developing a plan to resume, in a staged approach, community services, elective surgeries and diagnostics that were impacted by earlier service slowdowns. This will be released in the near future.

The elements of this plan will be activated in phases, with each phase triggered by surveillance data on transmission of the virus in the community. Identification of which services will resume will consider factors such as highest priority patient needs, risk of transmission of the virus, impact on COVID-19 surge capacity, impact on inventory of personal protective equipment and other factors.

“It will be cautious and methodical approach to reintroduction of services,” said SHA Emergency operations centre lead Derek Miller.

CEO Scott Livingstone said although the SHA sees the empty beds in hospitals and is concerned about the postponement of surgeries, they have to strike a balance.

“We can’t burn all our capacity to care for patients that we’ve postponed, we have to maintain that COVID capacity and that’s what we’re going to continue to do just in case something happens,” Livingstone said.

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by paNOW Staff

SHA planning for significantly better COVID-19 scenario

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