(File photo/paNOW Staff)

By Cam Lee

Spring runoff forecast

Water Security Agency’s spring runoff forecast near normal for region

Nov 18, 2019 | 2:00 PM

The Water Security Agency (WSA) has released its first look at potential spring runoff in the province.

The outlook for much of northeast and north-central Saskatchewan is largely unexciting so far, which is a good thing in this case.

Spokesperson Patrick Boyle said conditions are favourable for near normal runoff in the spring thanks to below normal fall precipitation following a wetter than normal summer.

However, factors can change to make the runoff potential shift to above or below normal expectations.

“It’s important to keep in mind this is kind of the first look at what the spring 2020 runoff will be,” Boyle said.

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One factor that goes into a spring runoff forecast is how wet the ground is at freeze-up. Much of the province was close to normal in that regard, except for the Souris River Basin in southern Saskatchewan.

Another impact that determines runoff is snow accumulation throughout the winter, and Boyle said that is the real variable in any spring runoff forecast.

The type of snow is also a variable, with heavy, wet accumulations containing more water.

“If you get sustained temperatures of well above zero and heavy, wet snow then it’s going to come off pretty quickly and that’s where you can see some issues,” he said.

The long-range forecasts are suggesting near normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for the first three months of winter.

There are only a couple of areas in Saskatchewan that aren’t expected to have near normal runoff at this point.

Much of southern Saskatchewan is forecast to receive a higher than normal spring runoff due to well above average precipitation this fall.

An area between Saskatoon and Prince Albert, a small region northeast of Yorkton, and an area near Kindersley are all experiencing drier than normal conditions heading into winter.

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cam.lee@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @camlee1974