PPC candidate Kelly Day's election sign was pitched in front of Conservative Randy Hoback's earlier last week. (Glenn Hicks/paNOW Staff)

By Glenn Hicks

The Right Numbers

Weighing the numbers in the P.A. riding for the political right

Oct 14, 2019 | 10:00 AM

There’s a large blue election sign that stands off Central Avenue in the East Hill area. Its sturdy frame is firmly rooted to the ground. It has been in place for some time and while it’s showing some very minor signs of wear it is designed to stay put. Recently, a newcomer appeared on that patch of grass; a diminutive purple offering that announced a different presence.

This scene exemplifies the David and Goliath nature of the Conservative vs People’s Party battle for the right-wing vote in the Prince Albert riding. Depending on the perspective, the presence of the PPC’s Kelly Day could be viewed as irrelevant to the three-time incumbent’s chances of another easy victory. Or, potentially, it may be a thorn in Conservative Randy Hoback’s side and dilute some of his vote while opening the door just a little for the other contenders in the race. Day is aiming big.

PPC candidate sets high expectations

“In the beginning, I would have been happy with a couple of per cent [of the vote] because I know how new we are [as a party], but now I’d love to see 10 per cent,” she told paNOW. “I don’t know if that’s feasible, but that’s what we’ll aim for.”

Day said she was hearing a lot from people who were fed up with the two mainstream parties (Conservatives and Liberals) or who had not voted for years and “were coming over.”

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“We’re coming from a pool that hasn’t been talking to people, or surveyed, no one’s been speaking to them. We have a lot of non-voters, disgruntled people who are so fed up with all of it, they haven’t voted, some of them for 20 years.”

If Day is to get her ten per cent share of the vote, that would equate to about 3,500 votes, based on the last election’s turn out. It’s not clear if that would mean 3,500 fewer votes for Hoback, nor do we know to what degree the NDP’s Harmony Johnson-Harder and Liberal Estelle Hjertaas can make gains on the incumbent or further split the progressive vote. It should be noted that despite a 12 per cent reduction compared to the previous election Hoback’s vote tally in 2015 was bigger than the NDP and Liberal figure combined. He finished ahead of the NDP candidate by over 8,400 votes. Voter turnout was 70 per cent.

Regardless of the unknown factors ahead of election day Hoback doesn’t think Day and the PPC can get the numbers she’s hoping for.

Conservative expects bigger win

“I don’t think she’s got that there, I’d be very surprised,” he told paNOW. “People are focused on the fact that a split vote doesn’t help anybody, it just helps [Liberal leader] Justin Trudeau.” Hoback claims he’s hearing even from former Liberal and NDP supporters that they want Trudeau out of office.

While Hoback’s share of the vote dipped to just under 50 per cent in the 2015 election following the Trudeau wave, he’s predicting a very different outcome this time.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we go back to the numbers we had the election before or even higher,” he said. Hoback took 62 per cent and nearly 58 per cent of the vote in the 2011 and 2008 elections.

As for Day’s thoughts that there is an untapped segment of disgruntled people who have simply not voted in recent elections, Hoback figures that’s not the case. He figures 70 per cent is about the turnout we’ll see again, and it’s NDP and Liberal voters who will be looking for a new home.

“If you’re a unionized worker in the oil and gas sector …you can’t support the NDP because they want to shut you down. There are many First Nations people who voted for Trudeau expecting he’d give them something, and now they’re disillusioned. Some will go NDP but some will go Conservative.”

As a matter of interest, on the day of publication of this article the Kelly Day sign was no longer on display at this location.

paNOW will be talking to the NDP and Liberal candidates to hear how they feel the voting numbers will work out for them.

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glenn.hicks@jpbg.ca

On Twitter: @princealbertnow