Riders Boldly Go Where No Rider Team Has Gone Before

I’ve watched the game three times, once live, once by myself and once with some Rider players to get a feel for what I say and what to expect for the rematch. On paper the Banjo Bowl has the Riders at 9-1 facing a 1-9 Winnipeg team in what should be no contest, but the Riders record has put a big target on their backs and the team will want to address a few issues before moving on.

First off, the Riders continued to show a weakness for an opposing quarterback to run on them. The week before against Edmonton, Eskimo QB Mike Reilly extended a number of drives by tucking the football and running, exploiting a gap between the defensive end and tackle and the Riders tendency to bring a lot of people to rush the quarterback.
Winnipeg QB Justin Goltz exploited the Riders in the same fashion, getting three rushing touchdowns and making the game closer than perhaps it should have been. Goltz does not have an arm and while one Winnipeg drive in particular was extended by penalty, his running kept the Riders off balance and other teams may choose to attack the Riders in a similar fashion.

The other issue the Riders have is a penchant for taking stupid penalties. Last week it was Diamond Ferri and this week it was Dwayne Anderson who was flagged for too strenuously arguing a call. Penalties from aggressive play are one thing and forgivable, but those penalties from arguing calls raises the troubling question of what if in the Grey Cup game the Riders lose because a drive was extended by unsportsmanlike behaviour
The Riders also suffered three injuries to their Canadian back-up talent with Levi Steinhaeuser, Neal Hughes and Craig Newman going out. Their impact will be felt on special teams, with Steinhaeuser being a long snapper and Newman making big hits.

If you look at Montreal, Toronto and Calgary, you see teams getting hit by injury bug and Montreal and Toronto and Calgary to some extent seeing their quarterbacks do down to injury. An 18 game schedule is pretty gruelling and one of the keys to a winning season is keeping injury free and having the depth to deal with injuries.
Calgary has done well with three quarterbacks able to step in and play, and while Drew Willy did pretty good taking the reins from Durant in the second Hamilton game, the jury may still be out if Willy can contribute like Calgary quarterbacks have done so far this season.

Winnipeg did introduce a razzle-dazzle play and a tendency to try to exploit mismatches against the Riders. New offensive coordinator Marcel Bellefeille is redesigning their offense to better reflect the abilities of Goltz and Winnipeg is starting to bring in players to push their starter.

Kory Sheets only got 91 yards, which is respectable, but considering his pace, this amounts to Winnipeg limiting the damage that Sheets can do. The Riders put offensive guard Chris Best on the nine game injury list and filled his spot with Devin Tyler and as Tyler gets more comfortable with the offense, the holes should come with Sheets. Patrick Neufeld is scheduled to come off the nine game injury lists, and is a possible addition back to the offensive line, which may open a spot for an American to come off either the nine-game or practise squad to play special teams in place of Newman.

The Riders got balanced production from their receivers, with Chris Getzlaf and Geroy Simon stepping up big time. Their performance points out the major weakness of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, which is their defensive secondary. Their defensive line I believe still leads the league in sacks and is tough to run against.
The Riders seem to be responding to a perceived lack of depth, especially if the injury bug (knock on wood) hovers near the team. They brought in former Winnipeg running back Chris Garrett for a look see in case Sheets does get banged up.

There is a question of whether the Riders are playing down to the level of their opponent or whether they should be dominating a hapless team like Winnipeg. The Riders are suspect to slow starts and do half time adjustments rather well in comparison to the Danny Barrett years. If the Riders can jump on top on Winnipeg and stay on their throats for the rest of the game, this will go a long way to answering that question.

The Riders have two games left after the Banjo Bowl against a one win team – Edmonton. Edmonton is becoming a good team, if their fourth quarter comeback against Calgary was any example, but the decision by Edmonton GM Ed Hervey to throw Simon Rottier an offensive lineman, under the bus, demonstrates an organization that may be as dysfunctional as Winnipeg. Edmonton coach Kavis Reed cannot make good decisions to save his team and seems in over his head.

So doing the math, the Riders should win those games to become 11-1. The Riders play Toronto after Winnipeg and Toronto will be without Ricky Ray and the bloom has come off of Zach Collaros as a back-up quarterback. Montreal blitzed Collaros repeatedly and go turnovers and if the Riders follow suit, this should be a win for the Riders. The Riders by my count are now 12-1.

The Riders have three games against BC, two of which are at home at Mosaic Stadium. BC is undefeated at home, but does not have a good road record. Give the Riders the two home games and BC taking one in their stadium. The Riders are then 14-2.

The Riders go to Montreal in three weeks who may or may not have Anthony Calvillo back in the line-up. Montreal is going with Tanner Marsh who is undefeated, but also has a tendency to throw interceptions. Montreal seemed to have rediscovered their running game and I think they will give Marsh a green light to run against the Riders, again using the gap between the defensive ends and tackle that Reilly of Edmonton and Goltz used. Montreal has a good defense that got great pressure in the game I saw last night and gave the Riders problems when they were here. If the Riders win, it will be close, but they have problems in Montreal. Riders will be 14-3 or 15-2.

The final game against Calgary will be crucial to finishing first. Calgary has a pair of games against BC, one at home and away on the final weekend of the season. BC is still too inconsistent for me to get a handle on, but I would think Calgary would win at home.

So projecting to that game, The Riders should be 13-3 in a worst case scenario or 14-2 if they win in Montreal. Calgary will likely be 14-2, unless we have some help along the way. The Riders win in Calgary and they should finish 15-3 or 16-2. Calgary wins and the Riders finish 14-4 or 15-3. No matter how you slice it, the Riders need to beat Calgary to finish in first.

But anything can happen until that game including injuries, upsets or whatever. The most important game of the season is the one on Sunday against Winnipeg to continue the momentum and fine-tune the offense and defense to avoid the mental trap of taking a team too easy.

I went 4-0 the past week and this week are the rematches of the previous games with a few interesting twists.
On Friday Calgary goes to Edmonton for the Labour Day rematch. Edmonton is under the gun to win this game as Hervey implied in his press conference, and Calgary is wondering about how they almost let the Labour Day game get away from them on Monday.

All we know for sure is Simon Rottier will not be playing. I wonder how a team can totally dominate like Calgary did on defense and then fall apart in the fourth quarter if not for a massive mental lapse. Edmonton needs to protect Reilly better, but the problem they have is not having the guys who can do that. When you start throwing players under the bus, it is a risk, and if it works out, great, but if Calgary starts Kevin Glenn, pick Calgary.

On Saturday BC goes to Hamilton and Hamilton will unveil some spiffy retro uniforms for that game. The first game was interesting because Hamilton was sort of in it before their rookie defense fell apart and their offense could not catch up. But like I mentioned, BC does not travel well so I will go out on a limb and pick Hamilton to win this one.

There are two games on Sunday with the first being Toronto at Montreal. The battle of the back-up QBs continues but the real story will be how Toronto responds to the ferocious Montreal defense. Montreal has a chance to move into a first place tie with Toronto (and apparently Hamilton if my pick is correct) and they are at home. Pick Montreal to complete the sweep, but watch Toronto because we play them next and Collaros is the type of mobile quarterback who has given us problems the last two games.

The final game is the Banjo Bowl and on paper, this should be a Rider win. Winnipeg just signed former Rider QB Levi Brown, who may be able to give some insight into the Rider offensive thinking and the Bombers seem to have somewhat of a handle on the Riders running game, holding Sheets to barely under 100 yards

Expect a few more trick plays from Winnipeg on offense, more running by Goltz and if the Riders shut them down, the Riders win easily. The longer the Riders keep the Bombers in the game, the more likely the upset, but expect a close first half and if all works well, the Riders will complete the sweep and become 9-1.

by Riderville

Riders Boldly Go Where No Rider Team Has Gone Before

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